Bayesian Model Averaging for Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasts Using Wind Speed and Direction
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Statistical approaches to wind forecasting offer two particular challenges: the distribution of wind speeds is highly skewed, and wind observations are reported to the nearest whole knot...
متن کاملBias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction
Wind direction is an angular variable, as opposed to weather quantities such as temperature, quantitative precipitation, or wind speed, which are linear variables. Consequently, traditional model output statistics and ensemble postprocessing methods become ineffective, or do not apply at all. This paper proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical ...
متن کاملMixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble foreca...
متن کاملImpact of Wind Direction and Speed on Dusty Days
The direction and speed of winds play an important role in the occurrence of pollutions and dust stormas well as location placement for the establishment of industries and the expansion of cities. Yazd is a dry area of Iran, and constantly exposed to the dust particles in the air; and this in terms of human life and health issues are of special importance. In this paper a day when due to the am...
متن کاملImpact of Wind Direction and Speed on Dusty Days
The direction and speed of winds play an important role in the occurrence of pollutions and dust stormas well as location placement for the establishment of industries and the expansion of cities. Yazd is a dry area of Iran, and constantly exposed to the dust particles in the air; and this in terms of human life and health issues are of special importance. In this paper a day when due to the am...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0882-8156,1520-0434
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-17-0091.1